Very crucial three years ahead for Kerala politics

After a thumping majority for the Marxist led front, the next three years would be crucial for all political fronts and parties in Kerala. Next Lok Sabha elections will knock the door by then. It is unpredictable whether the political equations will change by 2024 Lok Sabha elections. The Congress and the left parties may unite to put up a fight against a stronger BJP. But given the present circumstances, the BJP is unlikely to be a force to reckon with in Kerala by 2024, if no concrete steps are taken to revamp the party in the state. Thanks to its poor performance and noticeable decline in its vote share in the assembly elections, there are possibilities for a reshuffle in the BJP in Kerala. But the silver lining is that the state Government led by the Marxists would struggle to cope up with a shrinking exchequer in the coming months. The repercussions of the Masala bond and the much-hyped KIIFB is likely to deepen the financial crisis in a debt-stricken economy of the state. For now, its celebration time for the LDF and its captain Pinarayi Vijayan in his second term as Chief Minister. The Congress-led UDF and the BJP led NDA can brainstorm and resort to trouble-shooting exercises. As of now there is no more battle of votes for the next three years. With the pandemic dancing furious and frenzied and an iminent lock out in the offing, politics could well go to the back burner for now. But the months and years to come post the pandemic crisis would be eventful in Kerala politics. Its expected that logical conclusions to the various controversies related to Swapna, Saritha, etc. would emerge out by late this year. And a political setback for the CPI-M is a high-possibility if investigations go rationally and passionately. This would end up in political churning within the Marxist party paving way for a surgical strike by the BJP only to emerge strong as is being witnessed in West Bengal. All depends on the controversial cases booked by the Customs, NIA, CBI and the Enforcement Directorate. A financial catastrophe coupled with political setbacks for the ruling front would see the backbencher BJP emerging strong in Kerala. But there must be much more political boosters for the party in the backdrop of a weakening Congress. Its the best time for the BJP to come back strong and hit the bull.

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